The Choking Strategy
i just read a cynical post on a blog devoted to peak oil that stated something along these lines:
assume american leaders are peak oil aware and believe the peak is happening now or will happen very soon (within 1 year). assume that global oil supply can no longer grow. assume that china, india and emerging economies will continue to grow fast if left unchecked. that implies america would be privy to a smaller slice of the oil pie.
doesn't it stand to reason that it would be in america's interest to raise interest rates in order to trigger a global economic slowdown? slowing down economic growth should equate to slowing down demand for energy, especially liquid fuels. slowing down china & india would allow america to maintain the same slice of the oil pie for a longer period of time. a slow down would, of course, bring hardship and suffering to a lot of americans (think unemployment + $8 gas). but the situation would probably look more like a slow squeeze than a full blown depression.
choking oil supply is the only thing that is going to get lots of people conserving energy. choking implies pain. it implies shortage. choking americans is something american leaders want to prevent. however, choking the rest of the world may not be a bad move if the peak looks sharp and the downslope steep.
interesting to ponder ...
