Save and Conserve

The NY Times tells us about a report to be released today by McKinsey Global Institute that concludes the following:

The growth rate of worldwide energy consumption could be cut by more than half over the next 15 years through more aggressive energy-efficiency efforts by households and industry

McKinsey claims that these cuts can be achieved through currently available technologies and require merely that "some product standards would have to be tightened and some policy incentives changed."

To their credit, McKinsey acknowledges that "many steps are not taken because energy users lack information or do not value efficiency enought to change their buying habits."

Somehow, that seems to be putting the matter a bit too lightly. In reality, "energy users" will not change unless they are forced to. That force will arrive in the form of reduced energy supply. I'm currently banging the shortage drumb because I'm convinced shortage is the only think that will dent our consumption and force us to change behavior when it comes to treatment of energy.

Until "energy users" comprehend that energy supply is scarce, they will not truly value energy. Until they truly value energy, they will squander it. That is the nature of the situation. However, it's great to know that once the shortage comes along, we'll be able to deal with it by reading the McKinsey report.

Posted by tom c. at 12:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

BBC News is reporting that carbon emissions are rising faster than ever before. Quotes:

Emissions were rising by less than 1% annually up to the year 2000, but are now rising at 2.5% per year [from 2000 to 2005].

7.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes, Gt) of carbon passed into the atmosphere last year [2005]. In 2000, the figure was 6.8Gt.

Why are CO2 emissions rising so quickly?

From about 1970 the intensity [of fossil fuel use] decreased - we became more efficient at using energy - but we've been getting slightly worse since the year 2000.

In other words, we have been energy hogs. But wait, there's more:

The other trend is that as oil becomes more expensive, we're seeing a switch from oil burning to charcoal which is more polluting in terms of carbon.

I wrote about the increased use of coal recently. The US is the "Saudi Arabia of coal". We're going to be burning lots of coal for a really long time. If people don't wake up soon to this problem and start demanding responsible restrictions on use of coal (such as mandating clean coal technology for all new power plants), energy companies and power plants will have no reason to not keep burning more and more coal and dumping the entire load of CO2 into the atmosphere. Until the people wake up, politicians will not be compelled to pass these types of laws.

It's a sad state of affairs in many respects. We have all sorts of data points telling us we need to change course and we can't seem to figure out how to make the change happen. The politicians only think ahead as far as the next election. The people are so apathetic and disengaged and selfish that only a major hardship will wake them up. If we're not already too late to help this climate change situation, we will be very soon.

I wrote last week about how I was rooting for a quick onset of peak oil. I must now amend that. I am now rooting for a quick onset of peak oil plus a shortage event that wakes people up once and for all. Energy depletion and CO2 are the two big issues of the next 15 years, in my opinion. The sooner the people realize this, the better we'll all be in 30 years.

Posted by tom c. at 2:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

What a fantastic live music experience Levon Helm's Midnight Ramble concert was last night in Woodstock, NY. For anyone not familiar with Levon by name, he was the drummer/mandolinist/singer for the incredible rock n roll band, aptly named The Band.

Levon's voice is certainly no longer what it once was, but his heart is in the right place and he plays the music and feels the music like it was 1975. The Midnight Ramble has turned into a weekly Saturday night event, hosted right from Levon's awesome wood barn studio at his Woodstock property. The feel is rustic and warm. The acoustics are excellent in the studio and the audience literally surrounds the band area in all directions. Folding chairs in front and stage right. Standing room stage left and behind and above the band in the control room area of the studio. The music is American rock, country and blues and it is played by an extremely talented group, equal to a man like Levon who has shared the stage with most of the 20th century rock n roll greats at one time or another. Levon started on the mandolin for the first 5-7 songs, which were performed acoustically. When the band plugged in, Levon switched to the drum kit and that's when the fun really began. Needless to say, Levon's playing is still fantastic and surprisingly loud (Levon is very slight and it's hard to believe how powerful his drumming can be). Aside from Ophelia, the band stuck to newer Levon material ranging from straight-up country to power blues. It was all totally authentic and wonderful sounding.

As my girlfriend said to me on the way to the car, "That's the way all concerts should be." Enough said; we would be very lucky if they were all done like the Ramble. If you're in the upstate NY area and you enjoy classic rock, southern rock, country rock or the blues, you have got to get yourself to Levon's place for the Midnight Ramble.

Posted by tom c. at 4:51 PM | Permalink

I think most people agree that peak oil is unavoidable since it is a non-renewable resource. One year in the future, the world will produce - on average - more barrels per day of oil and natural gas liquids than any other year. That will be the peak year and peak oil will have come and gone.

Obviously, there is an unending debate occurring right now about what year will turn out to be the peak year. It is largely an exercise in futility to predict the peak year because of the variability in supply and demand and price. Geopolitical events impact oil production - for instance, Nigeria would have produced much more oil in 2006 if it weren't for the low-level revolution that is going on there. We all know that the war in Iraq has limited oil production for the past several years.

Anyway, the underlying concept about peak oil is sound. And, in point of fact, we should be thankful that peak oil lurks in our near future. Without peak oil, we'll be facing a world with more than a billion cars. Those cars will not be running on clean energy; they'll be running on the same stuff they've always run on: petroleum. And therefore, they'll be spewing vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. To the tune of 4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year. Currently, the world's automobile fleet is kickng out about 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year.

Does anyone really believe that earth can deal with CO2 emissions far and above current yearly levels? If so, what do they base that belief upon? No, it is an unsustainable path forward in my opinion.

We better hope peak oil arrives sooner rather than later, or else global warming will reach an irreversible tipping point and the brown organic matter will hit the air circulation device and ruin the future.

Posted by tom c. at 1:56 PM | Permalink

Global primary energy demand increases by 53% between now and 2030. Over 70% of this increase comes from developing countries, led by China and India.

World oil demand reaches 116 mb/d in 2030, up from 84 mb/d in 2005.

Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions reach 40 Gt in 2030, a 55% increase over today’s level. China overtakes the United States as the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 before 2010.

Strong policy action is needed to move the world onto a more sustainable energy path.

Improved efficiency of energy use contributes most to the energy savings.

Coal has led the recent surge in global energy demand.

To quench the world’s thirst for energy, investment in energy-supply infrastructure of over $20 trillion in real terms over 2005-2030 [is necessary] – substantially more than was previously estimated.

It is far from certain that all this investment will actually occur.

Guess the source of those quotes. Would you say Sierra Club? International Institute for Energy Conservation? Energy Star?

No, not any of those. How about the IEA? They just released their World Energy Outlook 2006 report, which - based on the press release that I quote above - sounds very ominous. I'm hearing we are on an unsustainable path. I'm hearing recent demand has been quenched most by coal. I'm hearing that a mind boggling amount of money appears to be necessary to meet runaway demand. This is an alarming release - they actually mention that non-OPEC oil production will "peak" next decade. They are openly discussing peak production rates ... peak oil.

If our energy use is unsustainable ... and we likely can't find the money to support the growth in energy supply ... isn't it time to change the way things work? I think the answer is obvious.

Posted by tom c. at 9:45 AM | Permalink

What's this? Bury a statue of St. Joseph in your yard and you'll have better luck selling your heretofore dead-in-the-doldrums mcmansion? I love this!

One of my favorite economists writes:

Sales of statues of St. Joseph are skyrocketing; it has been a long-time popular belief that burying a statue of St. Joseph in the basement of your home helps you sell your home when housing is in trouble. Those statue sales skyrocketed in the housing bust of the early 1990s and they are going through the roof again today.

Holy S! Or should I say, Holy J!

This sounds like easy money for at least 6 to 12 months. Ok, I know I have that affiliate login for Amazon somewhere. Now, if I can find a St. Joseph statue to sell. BINGO!!!

Attention: Desperate Homeowners!
Get your Saint Joseph Statue Sell Your Home Kit at Amazon.com Today! Just Click Here

Posted by tom c. at 3:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Posted by tom c. at 9:52 PM | Permalink

Google recently released a new product that allows anyone to create custom, vertical search. I have been playing around with this -- you can see it just below the blog masthead at the top of the homepage.

I have initially added sites like RigZone, Energy Bulletin and the Oil Drum to my custom search. If you have a peak oil related search, you're likely to find your answer easily using this custom engine. Check it out - it works great.

Thanks, Google!

Posted by tom c. at 10:54 AM | Permalink