Rooting for a Quick Onset of Peak Oil
I think most people agree that peak oil is unavoidable since it is a non-renewable resource. One year in the future, the world will produce - on average - more barrels per day of oil and natural gas liquids than any other year. That will be the peak year and peak oil will have come and gone.
Obviously, there is an unending debate occurring right now about what year will turn out to be the peak year. It is largely an exercise in futility to predict the peak year because of the variability in supply and demand and price. Geopolitical events impact oil production - for instance, Nigeria would have produced much more oil in 2006 if it weren't for the low-level revolution that is going on there. We all know that the war in Iraq has limited oil production for the past several years.
Anyway, the underlying concept about peak oil is sound. And, in point of fact, we should be thankful that peak oil lurks in our near future. Without peak oil, we'll be facing a world with more than a billion cars. Those cars will not be running on clean energy; they'll be running on the same stuff they've always run on: petroleum. And therefore, they'll be spewing vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. To the tune of 4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year. Currently, the world's automobile fleet is kickng out about 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year.
Does anyone really believe that earth can deal with CO2 emissions far and above current yearly levels? If so, what do they base that belief upon? No, it is an unsustainable path forward in my opinion.
We better hope peak oil arrives sooner rather than later, or else global warming will reach an irreversible tipping point and the brown organic matter will hit the air circulation device and ruin the future.
