Save and Conserve

The Oil Drum is probably my single most visited website on the Internet. Not only do I rely on the site for daily energy-related information, I love TOD because it serves up incredibly valuable content about a diverse set of topics. Posts at TOD regularly generate a lot of comments -- there are times when I find even more value in the comments than in the original piece. Although I'm a diehard fan of TOD, I don't often post comments myself. I find the information over there fascinating; I also find it quite technical.

Though TOD does have an archive section, it doesn't offer any filters other than by month. I wanted to pull together a list of the most popular posts as a kind of year-in-review.

I recently rummaged through TOD's 2006 posts and ranked the top 50 posts based on the number of comments they generated (through Dec. 27 at noon EST). Obviously, this may not be the best way to figure the top 50 -- it just happens to be the method I chose.

With that, I give you The Oil Drum's top 50 posts of 2006 (not including Drumbeats or Open Threads -- remember those?).

Jul. 24 - 463 comments - Jay Hanson and Dieoff.org

Dec. 11 - 428 comments - A Debate on the Substance and Timing of the Peak of Oil Production and Consumption, Part II

Mar. 01 - 388 comments - Why peak oil is probably about now

Dec. 13 - 379 comments - Why We Drive

Aug. 28 - 375 comments - The Energy Balance of Ethanol versus Gasoline

Nov. 11 - 352 comments - From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum

Dec. 20 - 340 comments - The Auto Efficiency Wedge

Nov. 16 - 340 comments - Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down? -- Our Response to CERA

Aug. 08 - 337 comments - Is Nuclear Power a Viable Option for Our Energy Needs?

Oct. 19 - 336 comments - Energy from Wind: A Discussion of the EROI Research

Jul. 27 - 333 comments - Vinod Khosla - Give Him Your Ideas

Aug. 09 - 329 comments - Khosla Responds: "Imagining the Future of Gasoline: Reality or Blue-sky Dreaming?"

Feb. 16 - 327 comments - Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions

Dec. 16 - 319 comments - A Different Approach to Calculating Saudi Arabia's Oil Reserves

Apr. 09 - 306 comments - Iran -- Apocalypse Now?

Feb. 13 - 302 comments - Dr Deffeyes defines a date

Sep. 18 - 297 comments - Let's Talk Gas Tax (Poll)

Apr. 28 - 290 comments - The Politics of Oil: The Discourse Must Change

Jul. 12 - 289 comments - Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme

Oct. 07 - 284 comments - The End of Fossil Energy

Aug. 22 - 282 comments - NY Times Energy Series: Nuclear

Aug. 08 - 276 comments - More thoughts on Prudhoe Bay

Dec. 01 - 274 comments - A Credible Threat?

Nov. 28 - 274 comments - Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy

Jun. 29 - 272 comments - Inflationary Collapses, or The NPV of Grandchildren

May 19 - 271 comments - XTL: Promise and Peril

Oct. 02 - 266 comments - JHK: "A Hard Place"

Jul. 15 - 266 comments - The Course of Our Lives WILL Be Determined by the First Derivative of a Function

Feb. 01 - 264 comments - Numbers and the State of the Union Energy segment

Mar. 31 - 262 comments - From an Insider: Rig Prices, Rig Depth, and How to Get a Job

Oct. 04 - 260 comments - The Specter of Recession

Sep. 27 - 257 comments - Burning Buried Sunshine

Jul. 26 - 257 comments - A Letter from the TOD Editors Box...

Aug. 13 - 254 comments - Due Diligence: A reader's response to Khosla

Jul. 15 - 251 comments - Peak Oil and L.A.

Feb. 04 - 241 comments - World Nuclear Panel Refers Iran to the Security Council

Aug. 04 - 240 comments - Heinberg: Middle East at a Crossroads

Aug. 03 - 239 comments - EIA insisting on plateau

Apr. 30 - 235 comments - Wishful thinking

Sep. 17 - 230 comments - A Thought for Today: "Losing Faith in Peak Oil's Transformative Power"

May 24 - 230 comments - E85: Spinning Our Wheels

Jul. 31 - 228 comments - A Conversation with Vinod Khosla

Dec. 04 - 226 comments - A Debate on the Substance and Timing of the Peak of Oil Production and Consumption, Part I

Jan. 27 - 223 comments - Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters

Jan. 16 - 222 comments - The Iranian Oil Weapon

Mar. 01 - 221 comments - NYT says peak oil "almost certainly correct"

Jun. 18 - 218 comments - "Oil Shale Development Imminent"

Jul. 25 - 216 comments - Vinod Khosla Debunked: Ethanol is NOT the Answer

May 09 - 212 comments - The Limits of Biofuels

Nov. 22 - 211 comments - Dr James Hansen: Can We Still Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change?

Posted by tom c. at 12:30 PM | Permalink

Just after I penned my previous post I happened upon a great podcast over at Global Public Media. I highly recommend listening to this mp3 if you are in the peak oil camp.

From the GPM website:

Does talk of our energy future get you down? Our guest today on the Reality Report is clinical psychologist Kathy McMahon, otherwise known as Peak Oil Shrink. Kathy is collecting stories from people who are shocked, depressed, anxious, angry, excited, and compulsive about Peak Oil, and the ways that these people are coping, on her web site peakoilblues.com.

I also visited PeakOilBlues.com - and it looks like a worthy site to visit. Check it out.

Posted by tom c. at 10:42 AM | Permalink

2007 will undoubtedly offer those of us following closely a better picture about the energy situation in America and worldwide. Based on the recent production data that has come out in late 2006, it is clear that major oil producing countries like Norway, Mexico and the UK are in a state of rapid decline. A quick look at Mexico is very worrisome because it appears that Mexican production is collapsing right now.

These oil production declines will put an excessive amount of importance on new projects and on countries still capable of growing output. Will the projects come online as projected in 2007? Will countries like Saudi Arabia increase production in 2007? Will any other important oil producers pass the peak and begin declines in 2007?

Of course, the oil/energy predicament is not the only important piece to the puzzle. Some economists are convinced that growth slowed to 0 in the 4th quarter and that recession is on the horizon. A recession would likely drive the price of oil and gas down - and mask the face of peak oil.

For myself, I am quite convinced that the world is fast approaching peak oil - with or without recession. During 2006, I have spent a ton of time reading about the oil supply situation and have yet to find a compelling argument that global oil production can grow significantly from current levels. The greater likelihood is that oil production will sustain current levels or fall from current levels in 2007.

In any event, even if the peak showed its face in 2007, I think the probability is high that the economy would hang on and employment rates would be resilient. After all, there is a learning curve associated with what peak oil implies - most people have not considered what a post-peak landscape means to them. However, if the psychology changed, big layoffs and high unemployment could happen. I hope current oil production levels can be sustained through 2007, for that would buy me more time to figure out my post-peak plan.

I've made some small changes in lifestyle based on my view of the future - for instance I sold a gas guzzler and now drive a more fuel efficient car - but nothing very significant. I still find myself working in the same industry which doesn't really have good prospects in a post-peak world. I have enrolled in a PV & Solar Energy course at a local college beginning in January. I'm very interested in solar energy and see some sort of future there. Not exactly sure where I would fit best, which is why I'm learning more about the technology and getting some exposure to how the industry functions.

I hope I can continue to transition to a more sustainable lifestyle next year. I hope I can continue to generate income. I hope I can forge a career change in the world of solar, which I consider to be a "real" industry with a strong, if not spectacular, future. And I hope to have a better sense of what to do at this time next year than I do right now.

Here's to a new year!

Posted by tom c. at 3:40 PM | Permalink

What is it about Google that makes the company so innovative and forward-thinking? Obviously, the Google mentality has worked -- Google continues to dominate the search space, which is really akin to dominating the Internet, since search is the primary navigation mechanism for the Internet. Vast amounts of cash on hand probably help to free the Google mind as well.

Part of Google's genius is the massive, distributed computing environment they have built out over the years. Google relies on thousands of computers to do the work of indexing, sorting and ranking millions of Internet pages. Because Google has been so good at search for so long, you forget how impressive the service actually is. For instance, results appear almost instantly in your browser. Speed is driven by the distributed environment.

One problem with the scenario: all those computers require an immense amount of power. Google has long recognized the achilles heel in their operating strategy.

But being who they are, Google is investing wisely in alternative energy.

Google's Mountain View, California, headquarters is getting a 1.6-megawatt solar system -- enough to power about 1,000 homes -- that will feed about 30 percent of the complex's power demand. About a third of the 9,000 solar panels Google's installing will take the form of overhanging parking shades at the million-square-foot campus in Mountain View. The others will be mounted on rooftops.

Google, one of the healthiest, fastest growing companies in the world is smart enough to understand that energy costs are not going to retreat in the future. They will continue to rise. And Google will undoubtedly stay ahead of the competition.

Posted by tom c. at 9:10 AM | Permalink

Posted by tom c. at 8:14 AM | Permalink

manage, v.

- To direct or control the use of; handle: manage a complex machine tool.
- To exert control over.
- To make submissive to one's authority, discipline, or persuasion.
- To direct the affairs or interests of: manage a company; an agency that manages performers.
- To succeed in accomplishing or achieving, especially with difficulty; contrive or arrange: managed to get a promotion.

Does society have the ability to manage the coming net reduction in total available energy without persuasion?

Can society successfully control its use of fossil fuels in light of global warming?

Will society represent and fight for the good of the greatest number?

Is negative utilitarianism possible given the operating framework of capitalism?

Posted by tom c. at 9:16 PM | Permalink

From time to time, I find myself visiting Google Trends and punching in keyword phrases. Internet search has been called the database of intentions; with their Trends page, Google shows the change over time in query usage as well as relative popularity of search terms.

I often punch in peak oil or global warming just to see how usage of those terms changes with time. Query volume often spikes on news. For instance, after Katrina searches for gas prices spiked A LOT.

Trends also enables you to compare multiple search terms on the same graph. In this view, you can see the relative popularity of one phrase versus another.

Here's a look at the search volumes for "peak oil" and "global warming" graphed on the same chart:

Care to guess which color corresponds with which term? Unfortunately, the blue line corresponds with "peak oil". I was surprised to see that usage of the search term "peak oil" has been declining over the course of 2006. I take it this is due to the decline in the price of oil and the price of gasoline - especially in the run-up to the US elections in November.

2006 will not be the year "peak oil" breaks into the mainstream ... but we'll check back in with Google Trends sometime in 2007 to see if the database of intentions is shifting focus on peak oil.

Posted by tom c. at 9:38 AM | Permalink

Peak Oil - the notion that the amount of oil the world can produce per day will max out and then enter a state of irreversible decline - is a fascinating subject to explore on the web. Very complex, often frightening and hotly debated, peak oil has spawned some fantastic web pages. If you have a brain, you'll probably want to spend some time thinking about the occurrence and timing of peak oil. These 25 peak oil websites will help you come up to speed and hash it all out:

1. The Oil Drum - Dedicated editors, juicy daily threads with hundreds of comments, data-driven posts and lots of pretty graphs. TODers know why this site is numero uno.
2. Energy Bulletin - Worth a daily stop, Energy Bulletin is a news source and aggregator for all things energy and peak oil.
3. Wikipedia Hubbert Peak page - A wonderful portal into the world of peak oil for the Wikipedia junky.
4. CERA - Cambridge Energy Research Associates claims the world can and will produce enough oil to meet demand through 2030. Detailed analysis will cost you $$$, but press releases offer a peek behind the curtain.
5. PeakOil.com - Forums and message boards devoted to - you guessed it - the peak of world oil production.
6. Life After the Oil Crash - Is civilization really coming to an end soon? Run for the hills! Also, number one in Google for "peak oil".
7. Rigzone - Oil industry exploration and production news.
8. Simmons & Company - Matthew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert and an oil industry financier, is also a peak oil believer. His website archives his peak oil presentations, loaded with facts & data about the oil (and natural gas) situation.
9. BP Statistical Review of World Energy - Download BP's amazing Excel spreadsheet loaded with world energy statistics and do your own analysis. India's oil consumption fell 3.5% in 2005? Surprising!
10. Econbrowser - Economists make compelling blog posts about peak oil. Check the righthand side to get straight to the peak oil stuff.
11. Sprott's Peak Oil Watch - Sprott Asset Management believes the peak is real. Can peak oil make you money?
12. Peak Oil Debunked - The name says it all. Although the site hasn't been updated in quite a while, there is a lot of interesting content in the archives.
13. RealClimate - The burning of fossil fuels and the warming of the globe appear to be inextricably linked. Great weather site at the very least.
14. GraphOilology - Owning a real tongue-twister of a name, this blog site features the work of Khebab, a respected practitioner of Hubbert Linearization. Not for the faint of heart.
15. Clusterfuck Nation - James Howard Kunstler rails against easy-motoring American society in posts every Monday. Oil dependency never sounded worse.
16. Ken Deffeyes - Though this page is rarely updated, it's a must-read when it is.
17. Peak Oil: Fact and Fiction - Cool page with lots of great stats you don't find everywhere else.
18. Oil Age Poster - A graphical representation of global oil production over time. Good Secret Santa gift too.
19. Trouble with Ghawar - Read about the Babe Ruth of oil fields.
20. Oilcast - Oilcast is now an archive site; it's still worthy of a visit. Recommended: the PDFs on the lefthand side, especially the Goldman Sachs "Superspike" report and the PEMEX podcast.
21. Hydrocarbons Technology - Find detailed information on current and future oilfield development projects.
22. Global Public Media - Access to interviews, podcasts and other media focused on energy and peak oil.
23. Energy Information Administration - Official energy stats from the US goverment, inlcuding weekly storage reports.
24. From the Wilderness - This site, recently mothballed, serves up years of content about peak oil ... and strong doses of conspiracy theory.
25. Resource Insights - Deep thoughts about deep stuff, including peak oil.

Posted by tom c. at 7:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

I know this is not the heavy driving season. I'm also aware that Americans seem to be cutting back on the number of miles they are driving. Both of which would seem to indicate a reduction in gasoline demand. At a time of lower demand, one would expect gasonline in storage to be on the higher side of average, correct?

Well, per the EIA, gasoline stocks are now pegged right at the bottom of the 5 year average range for this time of the year. Check out the graph:

The 5 year average range is represented by the thick blue band. At a time of the year when gas stocks should be growing, it looks like that is not happening in 2006. Why?

Lo and behold, demand is running high. Much higher than last year at this time, which appears to have taken a bite out of gas in storage:

Also, American gas imports have fallen significantly:

I'm going to bet that the reason Americans drove fewer miles in 2005 had more to do with massive hurricanes than anything else. Let's be honest, Americans are driving more than ever and consuming more gasoline than ever.

The gasoline supply chain is so huge that even at the bottom end of the 5 year range, the US currently has a 21 day supply of gas products in storage. Bottom line: no shortage around the corner ... but probably higher prices around the corner.

Posted by tom c. at 10:16 AM | Permalink