Looking Ahead
2007 will undoubtedly offer those of us following closely a better picture about the energy situation in America and worldwide. Based on the recent production data that has come out in late 2006, it is clear that major oil producing countries like Norway, Mexico and the UK are in a state of rapid decline. A quick look at Mexico is very worrisome because it appears that Mexican production is collapsing right now.
These oil production declines will put an excessive amount of importance on new projects and on countries still capable of growing output. Will the projects come online as projected in 2007? Will countries like Saudi Arabia increase production in 2007? Will any other important oil producers pass the peak and begin declines in 2007?
Of course, the oil/energy predicament is not the only important piece to the puzzle. Some economists are convinced that growth slowed to 0 in the 4th quarter and that recession is on the horizon. A recession would likely drive the price of oil and gas down - and mask the face of peak oil.
For myself, I am quite convinced that the world is fast approaching peak oil - with or without recession. During 2006, I have spent a ton of time reading about the oil supply situation and have yet to find a compelling argument that global oil production can grow significantly from current levels. The greater likelihood is that oil production will sustain current levels or fall from current levels in 2007.
In any event, even if the peak showed its face in 2007, I think the probability is high that the economy would hang on and employment rates would be resilient. After all, there is a learning curve associated with what peak oil implies - most people have not considered what a post-peak landscape means to them. However, if the psychology changed, big layoffs and high unemployment could happen. I hope current oil production levels can be sustained through 2007, for that would buy me more time to figure out my post-peak plan.
I've made some small changes in lifestyle based on my view of the future - for instance I sold a gas guzzler and now drive a more fuel efficient car - but nothing very significant. I still find myself working in the same industry which doesn't really have good prospects in a post-peak world. I have enrolled in a PV & Solar Energy course at a local college beginning in January. I'm very interested in solar energy and see some sort of future there. Not exactly sure where I would fit best, which is why I'm learning more about the technology and getting some exposure to how the industry functions.
I hope I can continue to transition to a more sustainable lifestyle next year. I hope I can continue to generate income. I hope I can forge a career change in the world of solar, which I consider to be a "real" industry with a strong, if not spectacular, future. And I hope to have a better sense of what to do at this time next year than I do right now.
Here's to a new year!
