Save and Conserve

The EPA has a new (to me) program - WaterSense - for consumers interested in purchasing water efficient products, like toilets, faucets and showerheads. Akin to the EnergyStar program, which helps consumers identify energy-efficient electrical appliances like washers, dryers and regrigerators, WaterSense strives to do the following:

Americans use large quantities of water inside and outside of their homes. The average family of four uses 400 gallons of water every day. This amount can increase depending on location; for example, the arid West has some of the highest per capita residential water use because of landscape irrigation.

WaterSense helps conserve water for future generations by providing information on products and programs that save water without sacrificing performance. In fact, every average household that fully adopts water efficient products and practices saves 30,000 gallons per year—enough to supply a year of drinking water for 150 thirsty neighbors.

WaterSense rated products "will save you 20 percent of water over average counterparts." Pretty neat - I had never heard of this program before listening earlier today to the home improvement radio show The Money Pit, which also looks like a pretty decent resource.

Posted by tom c. at 5:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm continually amazed by the power of Google. Professionally, I spend my time as a search engine marketer. That is, I try to optimize website pages so they rank high in search engines like Google and Yahoo for relevant queries. Ranking high in those engines (particularly in Google) means you'll make your site's pages visible to a lot of people, and you'll end up receiving a ton of "free" traffic. Of course, the traffic is not totally free (I take a salary), but it's more free than traditional advertising channels where you pay for impressions or clicks.

The entire question around peak oil is shrouded in fog. State operated oil companies, like Saudi Aramco, do not share production data. That is unfortunate, because in an oil dependent global economy, it would help to plan for the future by knowing exactly how much oil the Saudis (and other net exporters) could produce. As it stands today, we are forced to simply trust Aramco executives when they say they will be able to deliver an increasing capacity to produce crude oil.

Coupled with a very noisy media-driven environment where it is difficult to discern what is true, and you have the potential to sleepwalk towards disaster. Look at what's happening in England. Energy production is crashing, yet the government, via news outlets, is telling people everything will be alright. The signal is definitely getting lost amongst the noise ...

It struck me that Google is very much like the Saudi Arabia of the Internet world. Google is certainly entrenched as the number one search engine (in terms of usage), just as Saudi Arabia is the number one oil exporter. The brand name Google is now so ubiquitous that it occupies the spot in our lexicon heretofore known as "search". Just as the world is dependent upon the oil extracted by Saudi Aramco, so are thousands of Internet companies dependent on traffic originating from Google. (And users are dependent on Google to find what they are looking for, though to a lesser extent.)

Plus, how Google ranks pages is just as shrouded in fog as Saudi Aramco's production stats. Google's algorithm, which determines the rank of web pages for any given query that is passed, is a complex beast that likely incorporates hundreds (if not thousands) of inputs. The algorithm features a lot of moving parts, so it's nearly impossible to discern how it does what it does. Needless to say, Google (like Aramco) does not share key information with dependents - although Google does offer some high-level guidelines. But that's not the best part. The best part is Google can change the influence of any given input at any time, with no forewarning to anyone at all.

In other words, thousands of Internet business models are being constructed on a foundation of ice. Solid one day, but capable of quickly becoming very liquid should factors lead to warmer temps. Can the same be said for the global economy, which plans and grows based partly on the expectation that cheap energy will be available in the future? If we don't really know the state of the foundation (thick ice? thin ice? broken ice?), can we really feel comfortable about our operating model?

Last week, Google effectively stopped sending traffic to my company's website. It was as though Saudi Arabia stopped shipping oil and there was no gasoline at the Mobil (or anywhere else). In the span of a few hours, our foundation went from 20 foot thick icesheet to kiddie pool. Unfortunately, as the world is addicted to oil, so are many companies addicted to Google traffic. As many people know, addicts do not respond favorably to a total loss of product.

Avoiding risk as a general rule means you eliminate the possibility of profiting from the risk taking. That would seem to run contrary to human nature. Managing risk wisely is, however, a pillar of good business practice. Having a degree of control over one's operating environment would seem to be integral to risk management. So why are we so willing to cede control over our operating environment?

Posted by tom c. at 4:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I've neglected to post details of the last few solar energy courses because, as the class has progressed, we have not been introduced to new topics as much as we have drilled down deeper into the world of details and calculations around system sizing, wire sizing, balance of system components. All of which I've touched on in previous posts.

While producing electricity from solar cells is fairly simple, the devil is in the details. System efficiency is obviously critical to the long-term success (and ROI) of any residential solar system. To that end, quite a bit of time and thought needs to go into the size of system components (especially inverters), the amperage of conductors, voltage drop in a conductor over distance and batteries (on a battery backup system).

In Class 9 we did cover some new ground. We discussed bypass diodes, which are integrated into solar panels and activate when the panel becomes shaded. The idea is that the shaded portion of the circuit is not flowing current, so the diode bypasses that section of the circuit to maintain current flow through the panel and array. Pretty neat.

We also reviewed trigonometry. SOH CAH TOA mean anything to you? Well, it comes in quite handy when you need to figure out how to space out rows of tilted panels so the row in front doesn't shade the row in back. Commonly used for flat roof systems where the rack mount tilts the panel up to the sun at some angle.

If nothing else comes of my solar energy course, at least I can say I was reminded how to figure out the length of the sides of a right triangle. Awesome ...

Last class happens tonight and then comes the NABCEP test on Saturday. Wish me luck ... think I'm gonna need it

Notes from previous classes:

Class 1
Class 2
Week 2
Class 5

Posted by tom c. at 5:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Good news from Washington, D.C. today: a couple of Senators proposed legislation that would extend tax credits for solar energy systems (residential & commercial) through 2016.

This is important. We need to foster the growth and uptake of renewable energy sources. Tax credits are a good way to make this happen. Extending the credits far into the future sends a signal to consumers and businesses and state legislatures that solar is an important part of America's energy future.

As the article states:

A long-term extension is essential to reducing the cost of solar energy, as it would create market conditions that allow solar companies to make investments and drive down costs through economies of scale. A longer duration will also be needed to help stimulate the development of large-scale concentrating solar power projects.

The legislation proposed today includes the following provisions:

Residential Solar Tax Credit: Extends a 30-percent tax credit, created in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, for the purchase of residential solar water heating and fuel cell property. Changes the maximum credit to $1,500 for each half-kilowatt of capacity for solar PV equipment and $1,000 for each kilowatt of capacity for fuel cells. Credits may be taken against the alternative minimum tax. Expires after December 31, 2016.

Business Solar Tax Credit and Fuel Cell Tax Credit: Extends a 30-percent business credit, established in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, for the purchase of fuel cell power plants, solar energy property, and fiber-optic property used to illuminate the inside of a structure. Changes the maximum credit to $1,500 for each half-kilowatt of capacity for solar PV equipment. Credits may be taken against the alternative minimum tax. Expires after December 31, 2016.

Accelerated Depreciation: Creates a three-year accelerated depreciation period for all solar equipment eligible for the business solar tax credit.

Congress, please make this happen!

Posted by tom c. at 9:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

But it was most definitely not a cold January for the Earth. In fact,

Spurred on by unusually warm Siberia, Canada, northern Asia and Europe, the world's land areas were 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than a normal January, according to the U.S. National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. That didn't just nudge past the old record set in 2002, but broke that mark by 0.81 degrees, which meteorologists said is a lot, since such records often are broken by hundredths of a degree at a time.

3.4 degrees warmer than normal. That is like winning a World Cup downhill by 5 seconds or winning a major golf tournament by 25 strokes. Just doesn't happen.

The temperature of the world's land and water combined - the most effective measurement - was 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, breaking the old record by more than one-quarter of a degree. Ocean temperatures alone didn't set a record.

I'm sure the global warming deniers will latch onto the last sentence above with pitbull-like fervor, but their ability to obfuscate on this issue is quickly waning. Listen, global warming deniers, the planet is heating up. Get used to it. I think Fareed Zakaria has it right when he says,

As we debate the meta-theories about global warming, we're increasingly unprepared to deal with its consequences. Whether or not CO2 emissions are triggering certain reactions in the atmosphere, we can see that sea levels are rising. What are we going to do about it?

Posted by tom c. at 8:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Companies like SunEdison have forged new ground in the solar energy industry by creating a compelling business model I have heard called "solar outsourcing". SunEdison is working with businesses and utilities - they don't work at the residential consumer level. SunEdison owns and installs solar systems on business rooftops and sells the electricity produced by the system to the business owner. This outsourcing model has eliminated the barrier to entry: high initial costs. In addition, the business locks in a rate for power in the years ahead. SunEdison, meanwhile, acts as an independent power generator and grows revenue incrementally. At least, that's how I understand it ...

In recent months there has been a lot of talk about CitizenRE, a company that proposes to bring the "solar outsourcing" business model to the residential consumer. The idea is certainly worth looking at, but to those deeply involved in the solar business, it's not making sense. This article, written by Jeff Wolfe of groSolar, is an essential read for anyone wondering whether CitizenRE is a ponzi scheme or a real company with real prospects. The founders of CitizenRE have joined the comments on that page ... but they have not convinced experts like Wolfe that the model can succeed. Go read it ...

CitizenRE might be operating with smoke and mirrors, but a Utah company named International Automated Systems seems to have made a true breakthrough that has real implications for the solar industry.

From the article:

IAUS's unique thin-film solar lens can be produced at a fraction of the cost of today's traditional photovoltaic solar panels. IAUS believes its new product is the first solar power technology with legitimate potential to compete with gas and other fossil fuels in the immediate future. Low-cost energy produced by IAUS's new patented and patent-pending solar technology can be used to generate electricity or produce clean fuels such as hydrogen and green methanol (gasoline replacements) at a competitive price. Many experts had predicted that no solar power technology would likely accomplish this milestone before the year 2025.

One thing is clear, 2007 is going to be a very busy year for the solar PV industry. If state and federal government continues to expand support of solar through incentives, the sky really is the limit.

Update 2/15: US Department of Energy Headquarters to Get $30M Solar PV System. Legislation calls for a 300 foot long, 130 foot tall solar array in the heart of Washington, D.C. Awesome stuff!

Posted by tom c. at 11:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I just read an interesting piece by Tom Whipple comparing America's (read: American intelligence department's) inability to connect the warning dots in the months leading up to 9/11 with America's current inability to connect the dots pointing to the onset of global peak oil.

Just like there were many signs that an attack was imminent in summer 2001, there are signs that global oil production is headed for a continual, terminal decline -- albeit a slow one. We know Mexican oil production is crashing. We know North Sea oil production has peaked. We think Saudi Arabia might be on the verge of production decline. At The Oil Drum, these issues are discussed, analyzed and debated all day everyday. Check the site out for the granular details.

While some recent production data looks ominous, the price of oil has recently declined from its peak in 2006. Fairly cheap gasoline is always available. The Saudis state that they can ramp up production to 12 million barrels per day in the near future (and why should we doubt them? They have always delivered in the past ... first Iraq War being a perfect example). Chevron discovered a huge oil reserve in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico last year. Production is held back by political problems in Iraq and Nigeria (and therefore should be 1-2 million barrels per day higher). Smaller players like Angola and Brazil are poised for production growth. The Artic beckons with vast potential.

Whipple's right. There are a lot of dots out there, but they aren't all warning dots.

What we have is the "fog of oil". Lots of noise out there in the system. Some data, but not nearly enough data. Tough to understand what's happening. No incentive to be proactive. Confidence in our ability to react if the situation changes.

In The Fog of War, which by the way is a great documentary that I highly recommend, Robert McNamara presented eleven lessons:

1. Empathize with your enemy.
2. Rationality will not save us.
3. There's something beyond one's self.
4. Maximize efficiency.
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war.
6. Get the data.
7. Belief and seeing are both often wrong.
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning.
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil.
10. Never say never.
11. You can't change human nature.

Number six is critical to cutting through the "fog of oil". Unfortunately, we'll likely never get the data about oil production. Number six tells us why we aren't able to connect the dots.

People like Matt Simmons have been calling for increased data transparency in the oil industry. He's right. Hard data is the only thing that will convince people a problem lies ahead. Until then, the "fog of oil" will dictate inaction.

Posted by tom c. at 2:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

When OPEC cuts, the EIA listens ...

From the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook:

Inventories. EIA projects that the OPEC-10 cuts will be sufficient to reduce inventories to normal levels by mid-year 2007. EIA’s consumption and supply projections suggest that in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries commercial oil inventories could decline by 0.9 million bbl/d in the first quarter (compared with an average inventory draw over the past 5 years of 0.3 million bbl/d) and not build at all during the second quarter. In contrast, OECD commercial inventories have increased by an average of 0.8 million bbl/d during the second quarter over the past 5 years.

This view should fuel the oil bulls. Methinks we've seen the last of the 50s.

Posted by tom c. at 4:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Don't believe me? Go read his Op-Ed piece in the NY Times today ...

Posted by tom c. at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Although the vast majority of Save and Conserve visitors come from North America and Europe, every now and again, someone from Australia drops in and visits this site. Makes sense - Australia is literally on the other side of the Earth from Albany, NY where I live and so I don't often write about Australian conservation.

But maybe I should be focusing more on Australia, home country of my all-time favorite golfer, "the Shark", and one of the driest continents in the world. Australia is dealing with a "100 year drought" - which is not nearly as rad as the "50 year storm". Anyway, the drought raises a host of interesting questions about resource scarcity in industrialized society. Chief among them is: "How can we best conserve, share and distribute dwindling supplies of water?"

Australian fresh water, typically not very plentiful in good times, is now in extraordinarily short supply. Australia is so parched that poisonous snakes are slithering into cities searching for some drink.

From the Independent Online:

Thanks to the drought, dams are drying up. One dam alone in New South Wales has lost a volume of water equivalent to Sydney Harbour, because of evaporation. River beds in bone-dry rural areas are empty and cracked. One newspaper yesterday carried a front-page photograph of a little girl jumping over a muddy trickle on her parents' property - all that remains of the once powerful Darling, Australia's longest river. The river is part of the Murray-Darling system, which feeds the country's food basket. The National Climate Centre warned that without rain, the rivers will soon run dry.

Yep - sounds like a drought to me.

Now some Australians, recognizing that they are in dire straits, are pushing the public to adopt water recycling programs. The idea would be to recycle and purify water from sewage. Sure, nobody wants to drink sewer water. That goes without saying. But again, this is a country in the midst of a crippling drought. Sacrifice is reasonable given the circumstances, isn't it?

Remember, this is a country running out of water:

The Queensland Water Commission forecasts that dedicated-use drinking water could run out by 2009.

Clearly, something has to give in Australia. They need to figure out a way to get more water, without going bankrupt in the process. Recycling and purifying water from sewage makes common sense. It happens to be much cheaper than desalinizing water, as a comparison. (I'm not sure, but my guess is that it would take less energy to purify and treat sewer water than it would be to desalinate water.)

It should be interesting to see what they decide to do about the water shortage. Will they allocate their resources and money wisely in order to meet demand? Or will they squabble and hedge and obfuscate? Given the recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it looks like Australia will be a case study for other societies. Let's hope they can manage a tough problem the right way. Maybe we'll learn a thing or two and be more prepared to meet our own resource and energy challenges.

Posted by tom c. at 1:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Last weekend, my solar PV class toured 3 area homes that have active solar systems installed. Although it was about 10 degrees and snowing, the tour was really interesting. Our first stop was to a home in Troy, NY that uses a combination of active and passive solar energy.

Originally I planned to post some photos, but I found a video the owners posted. It's way more fun to watch solar junkies than read about them:

Posted by tom c. at 5:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)