Oh Dear. It's Worse Than I Realized
Although I shouldn't be, I find myself continually astounded by the results of surveys and polls here in the USA. The most recent one, conducted by the Consumer Federation of America, is a case study on misconceived notions, assumptions, and perceptions about America's relationship with black gold:
More than half (55%) of Americans mistakenly believe the nation holds more than twenty percent of the world’s oil reserves. In fact, the U.S. has less than 3% of this oil. Those who overestimate domestic oil reserves also are most likely to think “we can produce enough oil to reduce our dependence on oil imports.”Slightly more than half of Americans (51%) think "we can produce enough new oil in the U.S. to reduce our dependence on oil imports,” with 46% disagreeing.
This optimism is clearly related to the widespread belief that the nation contains far larger oil reserves than it in fact has. More than half (55%) of Americans think we hold at least one-fifth of the world's oil, with nearly one-third (32%) thinking we hold over 30%. Only 3% of Americans think that we hold less than 5% of the world's oil reserves, which is the correct answer, since the nation holds less than 3% of the world's oil reserves.
Domestic U.S. oil reserves equal just three years of current annual U.S. consumption and 12 years of current annual U.S. production.
I guess the obvious question is: why do so many Americans think we have so much oil in this country? Where do they get this stuff from? Why are they so wrong?
Comments
a) Most people would at least like to think that our percentage of world reserves is higher, not lower, than our percentage of world production (oops)
b) statistics can be manipulated in alot of ways, and I don't have hard numbers in front of me, but my guess is that the 3% number only includes verified reserves in currently open fields, and that if one were to include all the shale oil we have which is not currently economically viable to retrieve, but would be at $100 a barrel or so, then (according to another site I saw on reddit), we have much more than 3% of the worlds reserves, or something to the effect of 'more than the saudis'.
c) I think americans tend to subsconsciously include the reserves of our friendly northern vassals.
Posted by: KS | May 25, 2007 11:11 AM
I should have clarified in the original post ... the reserve number is coming from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, which is kind of like the bible for oil industry geeks.
According to the BP Report, the US has 2.4% of the world's Proved oil reserves.
How is Proved oil reserves defined? The Report states the following in a footnote:
Oil shale is a pipe dream ... EROEI will prevent the shale from being produced ... even if you could technically figure it out.
Posted by: tom c. | May 25, 2007 12:50 PM
3% of the entire world's reserves might still be a lot of oil. It doesn't necessarily follow that it's not enough to supply this country with oil.
Posted by: kickstand | May 25, 2007 2:12 PM
Example: my state may produce only .5% of the fresh water in the world (made-up figure). But it still might be enough to supply water for my entire state.
Posted by: kickstand | May 25, 2007 2:15 PM
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/pie/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption
(view as a pie chart for % values)
The problem is that the US uses ~25% of the world's oil production. Obviously 25%>2% so... it's not nearly enough.
Posted by: Joseph Duchesne | May 25, 2007 2:22 PM
KS: Oil shale is doing fine, by the way. Check out www.contres.com if you want a real-world example.
Posted by: okvol | May 25, 2007 2:26 PM
@ kickstand
the 3% of reserves equates to this:
what that means is America will continue to import more and more oil, not reduce dependency on foreign sources
Posted by: tom c. | May 25, 2007 2:37 PM
I'm not surprised that so many people think the US has a lot of oil left. The US certainly has a lot of oil wells, after all, a legacy from a time when the US was among the most prolific oil-producing regions in the world.
I think in this case reality changed faster than the conventional wisdom did.
Posted by: Western Infidels | May 25, 2007 6:02 PM